Risk Analysis

Earth Tech conducted a probabilistic risk analysis on post-closure stewardship costs for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS). This project included transforming the DOE cost estimate into a dynamic spreadsheet model, followed by performing a perturbation (what-if) analysis to identify items in the estimate that have the greatest impact on overall cost. The values for important cost elements were replaced with probability distribution functions, then a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted on the cost model. The results of the risk analysis were evaluated to determine the sufficiency of the contingency allowance that was applied to the estimate. Earth Tech prepared a report and a briefing to DOE management describing the methodology and the results of the risk analysis.